Thanks to Donal Buckley for giving me the real facts, rather than my guesses:

“Regardless of Dover tide times (it’s dropping there now), Bernard’s track is that of a flood tide swim.

He is currently in the North East shipping lane, for all marine traffic in the Channel, and he is travelling north being pushed by the tide. He has also crossed the Ferry Lane between Dover & Calais.

He looks to be on target, and should enter the Separation Zone at about 6 hours. The Separation Zone divides the two north-south shipping lanes. The Separation Zone has a higher concentration of jellyfish and rubbish. 

Then he will be pulled back South East toward the Cap. His speed will increase even as he tires, getting the benefit of the flow. How far he travels SE will determine where he turns into the Cap Griz Nez. He will have a second turn into France somewhere off the Cap. 

The current off the Cap on a Spring tide flows at up to 7 knots, where a world class elite swimmer can swim about 3 knots.

Which side the C2V buoy he passes will give an indicator if he will land on the Cap or on the beach.”